← Back to publications

Controlling filamentous cyanobacterial blooms requires adaptive, weather-informed strategy

丝状蓝藻
沉积物再悬浮
光调控
机器学习
水质管理
作者 / Authors
作者
单位

方 姣

Key Laboratory of Environmental Aquatic Chemistry, State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences

School of Environment and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology

苏 命

Key Laboratory of Environmental Aquatic Chemistry, State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

李 延德

Management Station of Shuangxikou Reservoir, Reservoir Management Service Center of Yuyao

桂 玉莹

Key Laboratory of Environmental Aquatic Chemistry, State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences

College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ocean University of China

艾 宇帆

Key Laboratory of Environmental Aquatic Chemistry, State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Joseph Ogalo

Key Laboratory of Environmental Aquatic Chemistry, State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

曹 腾心

Key Laboratory of Environmental Aquatic Chemistry, State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

何 世龙

School of Environment and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology

杨 敏

Key Laboratory of Environmental Aquatic Chemistry, State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

发布于

2026年07月22日

Doi

10.1016/j.watres.2026.126505

摘要

丝状蓝藻的全球扩张对水安全构成威胁，因为它们会产生毒素和异味化合物。作为水下栖息者，丝状蓝藻对传统的营养盐控制和絮凝控制具有抗性，暴露了管理上的空白。我们开发了一种适应性、预测引导的框架，将预测建模与精准沉积物再悬浮（SR）相结合，其中与SR相关的光衰减可能对水华抑制起重要作用。2023-2024年对中国东部40座水库的调查显示，半数系统中丝状蓝藻占生物量的80%以上。XGBoost模型（R2 = 0.57）识别出9-10月为最高风险期，超过80%的水库受到影响。SR的有效性依赖于光照：在低辐照度下抑制生长，但在高光照下如果遮光将辐照度调整到丝状藻类的最适范围，则可能促进其生长。我们通过调节沉积物通量（0.1-5.2 g L-1）优化了SR，以响应实时预报动态衰减光照。现场验证证实，预报引导的SR通过光控制有效限制了假鱼腥藻（Pseudanabaena）。这种基于生态的管理方法为气候变化下可持续的水安全提供了一个可扩展的框架。

摘要

丝状蓝藻的全球扩张对水安全构成威胁，因为它们会产生毒素和异味化合物。作为水下栖息者，丝状蓝藻对传统的营养盐控制和絮凝控制具有抗性，暴露了管理上的空白。我们开发了一种适应性、预测引导的框架，将预测建模与精准沉积物再悬浮（SR）相结合，其中与SR相关的光衰减可能对水华抑制起重要作用。2023-2024年对中国东部40座水库的调查显示，半数系统中丝状蓝藻占生物量的80%以上。XGBoost模型（R2 = 0.57）识别出9-10月为最高风险期，超过80%的水库受到影响。SR的有效性依赖于光照：在低辐照度下抑制生长，但在高光照下如果遮光将辐照度调整到丝状藻类的最适范围，则可能促进其生长。我们通过调节沉积物通量（0.1-5.2 g L-1）优化了SR，以响应实时预报动态衰减光照。现场验证证实，预报引导的SR通过光控制有效限制了假鱼腥藻（Pseudanabaena）。这种基于生态的管理方法为气候变化下可持续的水安全提供了一个可扩展的框架。

Graphical abstract

内容概览

本文的核心发现是：丝状蓝藻的控制效果取决于水下光照条件，沉积物再悬浮并非固定的“越强越好”，而应结合实时风险预测和天气预报动态调节。研究首先利用中国东部40座饮用水水库的调查数据识别高风险时段，再通过XGBoost模型和现场验证，将“调查—预测—调控”连接成可执行的水源地管理流程。

Fig. 1 研究区域与风险分布

Fig. 2 丝状蓝藻风险预测结果

Fig. 3 预测—调控框架

引用与导出

@article{fang2026controlling,
title = {Controlling filamentous cyanobacterial blooms requires adaptive, weather-informed strategy},
journal = {Water Research},
pages = {126505},
year = {2026},
issn = {0043-1354},
doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2026.126505},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0043135426011796},
author = {Jiao Fang and Ming Su^*^ and Yande Li and Yuying Gui and Yufan Ai and Ogalo Joseph and Tengxin Cao and Shilong He and Min Yang^*^},
keywords = {Filamentous cyanobacteria, Sediment resuspension, Light regulation, Machine learning, Water quality management}
}